On Uncertainty
Fears and Remedies in Life's Probabilistic Distribution
Thinking about the many different vectors life propagates in- careers, relationships, experiences, pursuits- I cannot stop thinking about uncertainty. Looking ahead into the greater picture, I constantly dwell on the fear of uncertainty. Like a shadow that hangs in the posterior of my conscious thoughts in the gleam of aspirations, uncertainty is always present in this context. Often finding myself questions such as what is my next pursuit, when will I achieve my next pursuit, and will I achieve my pursuit in the first place, I write this with the hope to alleviate my recent obsession with uncertainty and to shift focus towards certain progress.
Firstly, what is uncertainty? Although I can certainly give a cheeky response and say “I don’t know,” I want to give a stab at qualifying this in a very unphilosophical way, but rather a representation with a mental model. Being the math enjoyer who dabbled in poker and reads extensively about the wonders of the stock market, I would like to model uncertainty as some sort of discrete/continuous probabilistic distribution, which assigns some impossible-to-determine probability to an infinite amount of outcomes in a given context. This distribution is present in every aspect of life, ranging from the minutia details of enjoying dinner at a certain restaurant to the life altering shifts of landing a new job or meeting a significant other.
Despite such distribution being abstract, uncertainty in life is really only considered in the tail end of scenarios- scenarios that have a significant impact in altering life’s trajectory. And rightly so- why should I care about the probability of liking a newly purchased ice cream flavour? But it is also important not to completely ignore the everyday uncertainties we grow accustomed to; the black swan occurrences are still very real: it only takes one everyday street crossing experience to go awry for one to be permanently crippled or dead. In this sense, uncertainty can be have an out-sized impact in any split second of any seemingly normal day. Uncertainty is indeed frightening with this context.
If we generalize, take a larger viewpoint, and focus only on uncertainty present in the greater procession of life, the fear of uncertainty is persistently present and similarly frightening. The stakes are similarly as high- with so much riding on what we do, who we meet, where we live, and when we pivot, it often feels as though the entirely of life can change akin to the consequence of being hit by a car. Decisions during young adulthood can lead to regret or breakthrough. The example that comes to mind is the pivotal decision of going to university (attendance, institution, major are all variables), which can have negative consequences in the ratio of future income to debt and professional pathway (expertise, industry exposure, network, etc).
Whereas the inherent fear in uncertainty is always there, my digestion of such fear modulates over time. Within a week, I can be very optimistic and positive on one day, completely trusting in its upsides and and excitement, yet swing downwards another day, wallowing in its downsides and becoming paralyzed in fear. Thinking about today, when I felt confident in the face of uncertainty, versus Sunday, when I felt utter fear and melancholy, I can mostly attribute this change in attitude towards levels of happiness and maybe levels of dopamine (neither a novel revelation nor a measurable quantity in any regard). On days I feel happier and more motivated, uncertainty falters. On days I feel down and less motivated, I falter.
The days where I falter are perhaps some of the most frightening. The shadow of uncertainty grows darker, pushing out all the oxygen in the room for there only to remain the odourless gas of angst and powerlessness. It truly feels suffocating- the anxiousness of wanting to know the future compounds the perceived utter weakness in imposing personal action and certainty on the uncertain future to create a setting that I only want to escape from. Whether it be through watching Youtube or playing games, I find myself looking for ways to dull senses and greater reality- to be invested in an already written story in favour of writing my own, to preoccupy the imaginative mind with something decisively nonsensical, and to hide from the bare realities of uncertainty. In this frenzy for numbing, I begin to procrastinate and think of excuses: “I can do it tomorrow,” “I’m tired today,” and “everyone plays games” all ring much too often. Out of all the excuses, perhaps the most indulgent are thoughts “I should be kind to myself” or “I should focus on my mental health” not because they show weakness, but because they are precisely correct. It is without a question that I should be kind to myself and I should focus on my mental health. But what are the boundaries of these considerations? At what point am I being too kind or giving myself too much slack? At what point am I actually just dulling the fear of uncertainty with “kindness” and care for “mental health” (in quotations because of the honest consideration become dishonest)? Indeed, very difficult questions to evaluate.
Another aspect of procrastination is magnified by the nature of the unknown. If I do not know my true passions and my next pursuits, it simply becomes much more straightforward to subscribe to procrastinate. The resistance built from discipline towards a singular focus and point of achievement is no longer present; discipline for the sake of discipline is difficult. After all, what am I procrastinating if I am not focused on a certain objective?
No matter the amount of distractions, it remains perpetually true: uncertainty can never be escaped from completely. It will always be present. I will always have to face it eventually.
Naturally, the next question is: how can I maintain my resolve against uncertainty and increase the proportion of days I feel happier in comparison to the days I feel down? There are several routes I have considered this for myself. The first is definitely the more scientific approach promoted by Andrew Huberman and other public figures, which revolve around several protocols including, but not limited to: morning light exposure, exercise, and varying temperature exposure (sauna for heat and cold shower for cold). And while these are an effective first line of automatic influence (ie: I do not need to actively think about getting my exercise in), I don’t necessarily find these protocols to be an end all be all. If I follow these to a T, I am not guaranteed confidence when staring down the pitch dark abyss of uncertainty.
Another surely actionable item is maintaining discipline. While pretty cliche, discipline contributes significantly to establishing some concrete foundation: I know I will wake up and sleep by certain times, I will work out 4 times a week, I will avoid unhealthy foods, etc. Already having these basics established, I should look towards being more ambitious with my disciplinary goals- after all, the best goals are the ones that are difficult, not guaranteed success, and require ample amounts of grit. One that readily applies to myself is removing Youtube from my entertainment catalog, which immediately removes non concentrated work stints and improves time efficiency on miscellaneous tasks (ie: washing dishes). In having more ambitious goals in discipline, I hope to not only have a sense of purpose on a day to day basis, but also to also be more dangerously effective when I do actually have a focused pursuit.
I surmise the fear of uncertainty can also be countered by an optimistic mindset. While sounding cliche (I feel like I read “positivity” a million times growing up), it has significant power in a world where cynicism, fear, and negativity are so easy to succumb to. The most stunning story of optimism in the face of uncertainty is the arc of Sony, the conglomerate that started in the ruined economy of post war Japan and grew to innovate technology and media in a world that started much more advanced and stable. In greater regard, the story of Japan is magnificent as well, growing from one of the poorest countries to, at one point in the 1990s, the second largest economy in the world. Surely the intertwined stories of Sony and Japan could never have been predicted, yet the unknown distribution plopped them into fruition. Uncertainty, like any other probabilistic distribution has two tails, one being the feared downside and the other being the often forgotten upside. In some sense, it may actually be ideal to delude myself towards being irrationally optimistic, that everything works out in the end and that I do have some control over the variance of the future.
Not indifferent from the qualities of TV shows that I engross myself so much in, uncertainty is part of what makes like so interesting and so exciting. I want to see all the twists and turns my life has to offer. I want to experience all the high highs and (though maybe hesitantly) the low lows. I want to experience the wide range of emotions conjured from the probability distribution and, in an extension, learn more about my reaction and my hopefully increasing maturity. The fact that I do not know the future inspires a sense a purpose- to attempt to control its direction as the revelations of fate take me wherever they desire. Despite future’s uncertainty being very scary, so is the time gone from dulling reality- excessive gaming, fruitless entertainment, and knowledge that I will never use.
For the goal of living a meaningful life, I shall run towards uncertainty for there is no other alternative~